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Post by nonentropic on Jun 15, 2016 9:44:46 GMT
That's unlikely to attract commercial operators even if it were open for several months. There will always be ice or the risk of ice that will demand long term planning of insurance and vessel type. This northern passage is grand standing rather than some new opportunity. The Arctic is currently at about zero C and this is a very exceptional year at about the longest day one extra degree will not make it into some open clear ocean for half a year. In ten years if you are correct and the world continues to boil the picture may be a little clearer but with the Panama extended and the Suez also, long established routes and vessel types are unlike to be substituted with a summer fleet for the north. Sea shipping is actually quite fast and cheap the end point efficiency improvements will add much more than a northern route every so often open. I must say refrigerated cargo could be interesting and containers of wine destroyed by freezing every so often also.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 13, 2016 20:10:06 GMT
yup it was if I remember correctly 17X larger than the unprecedented flood some 10 years ago in California.
We now live in the world of anecdote, the medium is twitter.
I tell my daughter when she fiddles on Twitter to discover the meaning of what a twit is.
worth a look.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 13, 2016 4:25:18 GMT
That is a complete rubbish paper.
As soon as the word unprecedented is used in an unqualified context you know its a spin story.
Just about no event other than a date can be unprecedented or more precisely, provable as unprecedented, only fools and idiots intent on deception say this stuff. Very sad to see that organization with a long academic history sliding into the roll of state propaganda agency or even worse Stazi type organization.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 12, 2016 18:45:39 GMT
Donald will feel he is right and so will many others.
These sorts of events are easily slipped into the echo chambers of Twitter.
Its another nail in the coffin of rational debate, very sad for all.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 12, 2016 9:58:54 GMT
Naut I hold major concerns about the Greens full actual focus. However the smart meter thing if well implemented can be superb.
I say this with a number of qualifications, we don't have this sorted in NZ but I have seen it used in the US. The customer must have variable pricing and the ability to choose what load is shed with live pricing. This is done automatically but according to the customers wishes. wealthy people may choose to have power when they wish but then will pay whatever. People may alternately choose to not have heating or cooling above a set price or water heating may be delayed. In NZ we have an electricity price dominated by the purported cost of transmission and distribution. At a retail consumer level it accounts for 75% of the price, the excuse has been the need to build ever larger transmission etc. peek shaving would have stopped this argument and delivered much reduced consumer prices plus it would have exposed the daft spend of the wind and solar sector to prices in a market that reflect the actual value of the product sold.
However my suspicion is that we will be rogered regardless.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 12, 2016 2:16:06 GMT
You know MB a really solid flux of volcanic energy say 3000M down could result in an up-welling of very cold but low salinity water that could at the surface be seen as a cool patch, but it is in fact a manifestation of heat.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 11, 2016 19:53:00 GMT
My prediction is that it will all come right towards the end of the year fred.
Can I have a grant please to firm that up.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 11, 2016 19:49:23 GMT
How deep do you want the surface temperature to extend?
one other thing the Nullschool SSTA is not the same as SST so a cool anomaly may in fact be a result of surface water sliding under cooler water due to a secondary impact such as saline variability.
The nullschool site is very good but what will they say about our discussions with a further 40 years of data. If you look at the past the biggest frustration is the lack of a metric such as Antarctic sea ice cover for much more than half of an observed cycle.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 10, 2016 19:34:05 GMT
I have never seen a realistic demonstration that even a large volcano sub-sea could warm a region of water.
Water has a large heat capacity is this in fact true, does anyone have a paper that covers this?
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 10, 2016 19:28:17 GMT
lets keep the perspective here GW.
Your comments are aimed at the concept that CO2 emissions by us is collapsing the Arctic ice cover in summer rather than some cyclic process that may or may not include some impact by our emissions.
Without showing some mechanism that actually preserves or grows the Antarctic ice during this death spiral you clearly show that there is a trivial level of understanding of the forces in play.
Wiggle commentary is not little more than noise. I personally still hold the view that there is a significant risk that CAGW is a risk, but its clear that you have some linkage to the :official" BS machine and if its just wiggle worship then we are safe in the business as usual mode.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 8, 2016 5:36:22 GMT
relax there is a bit of wiggle watching in all of us.
Who knows when they turn from wiggle to tide and 5 days in the present part of the solar cycle deserves a comment.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 8, 2016 5:32:25 GMT
No local authorities should stop development regardless of risk. Its a genuine Darwinian frontier and as such vital for us all.
my issue is with the insurance industry if they have encouraged the development by cross subsidizing premiums from sensible people.
The last major storm of this type was in the 70's and the 20's last century the likely cause would have been horse dung build up or what ever was the prevailing fascination of the time. no real sign of that perma drought predicted a few years ago by some band idiot turned poli.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 7, 2016 21:43:26 GMT
is it a wave or is it a tide Flea?
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 6, 2016 17:56:53 GMT
actually they can buy more flat screens.
Any economic distortion reduces wealth, the reason is that politicians are stupid, they give it to their constituency rather than to a logical need which means it is spent poorly.
Witness the growth in agricultural performance since subsidies were removed in NZ. Subsidies are for cot case industries in their last few years.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 5, 2016 20:04:34 GMT
It still leaves the issue of telescope location.
I lived in the north of Europe for two winters in the 70s there were weeks that could have been spotty or not but unseen.
200 years ago telescopes were clustered in these regions, so a rare event such as a spotless observation but not then observed for a week due to weather is recorded as a day or a week if the subsequent observation has a spot.
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