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Post by duwayne on Jul 24, 2020 2:10:49 GMT
The US 7-Day average Spread Rate peaked on June 29 at 15.6% and has since slowly declined to 14.0%. This indicates a deceleration in the rate of new cases but still growing. The Spread Rate needs to fall below 12.5% before a declining trend in new cases is indicated. Meanwhile the declining death rate has reversed as one might expect with the uptick in hospitalizations. Reported deaths are usually highest on Thursdays and Fridays and it would not be surprising to see 1,000 deaths today and/or tomorrow and/or next Thursday or Friday. If the current trends continue, we could be a couple of weeks away from a drop in the 7-Day average of new cases and and possibly a month away from a decline in the 7-Day average of deaths. In the above post from July 9, based on the Spread Rate trend, I projected the COVID-19 cases in the US would peak in about 2 weeks which is today. The 7-Day average Spread Rate declined to 12.4% today (12.5% is the breakeven point) which means the decline has just started. I’m hoping the decline will be fairly brisk. The daily new case 7-day average reached 69,000 yesterday and that’s triple the number from the end of May. In that same July 9 post, I projected the daily death rate would peak about 2 weeks after the daily new cases. Since it takes a few days for the deaths to be reported I’m projecting the decline in the reported deaths to begin in within 3 weeks.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 24, 2020 5:17:34 GMT
Emerging evidence, wouldn't take this with certainty but it does fit with evidence that viral load is a factor in severity of subsequent symptoms. read further thread for full info.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 24, 2020 8:24:55 GMT
Looks like they are at a around a third of the deaths per capita as New York State, with far less economic disruption. But you would expect the champions of lockdown to not want anyone to understand what Sweden's figures mean.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 24, 2020 8:54:19 GMT
Really packing on the reliability quotient there a WHO funded paper in The Lancet So we have a couple of asymptomatic hairdressers (if they had been symptomatic they would have not gone to work) who didn't pass on their 'infection' to their clients. The claim is that this proves masks work - or it could equally be that asymptomatic transmission does not happen. It was claimed by a WHO doctor that there was no asymptomatic transmission -- she was reset a couple of days later and corrected what she said and that when she said there was no what she actually meant was that there could be. We have the Lancet meta study that (if I read it correctly) gives low mask efficacy rates unless they are up in the medical/bio safety lab PPE grades. Supporting the initial position of the CDC - until they too got reset. It does seem there is a narrative controller somewhere trying to keep the panic stoked about a disease that for most people they have to be tested or they wouldn't have known they had it. With the way the figures are being massaged (which would be considered criminal offenses in financial companies) I am not sure I would believe a medical test now unless I knew the technician and was there to watch them do the entire test - and even then if I am asymptomatic but positive have I really got a disease? It is like feeling fine and being tested for pollen in your nose and if there is any, being told I have hay fever
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Post by acidohm on Jul 24, 2020 10:04:50 GMT
Looks like they are at a around a third of the deaths per capita as New York State, with far less economic disruption. But you would expect the champions of lockdown to not want anyone to understand what Sweden's figures mean. Demographics are completely different. You cant compare the 2 directly. Sweden didn't lockdown but how did the population behave? Genuinely don't know!
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 24, 2020 11:15:22 GMT
Looks like they are at a around a third of the deaths per capita as New York State, with far less economic disruption. But you would expect the champions of lockdown to not want anyone to understand what Sweden's figures mean. Demographics are completely different. You cant compare the 2 directly. Sweden didn't lockdown but how did the population behave? Genuinely don't know! It would be good to see a break down by area some kind of contour map. Same for New York for that matter you cannot compare NYC to upstate. It would also be good to get statistics that were not being used to support a narrative, just the raw data.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 24, 2020 11:36:52 GMT
Demographics are completely different. You cant compare the 2 directly. Sweden didn't lockdown but how did the population behave? Genuinely don't know! It would be good to see a break down by area some kind of contour map. Same for New York for that matter you cannot compare NYC to upstate. It would also be good to get statistics that were not being used to support a narrative, just the raw data. One tidbit of information, 50% of people in Stockholm, by far the most populous city, live by themselves. All they had to do was observe social distancing, voluntarily, and their risk was low.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 24, 2020 12:53:43 GMT
[ Snip ] Shouting at a television can be great therapy. They say Elvis used a shotgun. There are times when I am glad I no longer have a shotgun.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 24, 2020 14:12:00 GMT
The Lancet -again- with a lot of hedging... "A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes
....... Additionally, the case definitions between countries may have varied, and indeed the case definitions have been known to vary in the past. Notwithstanding these limitations, our findings propose avenues for further debate, research, and exploration, and do not support a definitive judgement on the effectiveness of various public health interventions implemented across different countries. The findings of this country level analysis on COVID-19 related health outcomes suggest that low levels of national preparedness, scale of testing, as well as population characteristics such as obesity, advanced age and higher per capita GDP are associated with increased national case load and mortality."www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370%2820%2930208-X/fulltextObesity, age, state of development of the country (aka availability of health services) appear to be the drivers regardless of the political 'health' initiatives.
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Post by duwayne on Jul 24, 2020 14:14:58 GMT
In the above post from July 9, based on the Spread Rate trend, I projected the COVID-19 cases in the US would peak in about 2 weeks which is today. The 7-Day average Spread Rate declined to 12.4% today (12.5% is the breakeven point) which means the decline has just started. I’m hoping the decline will be fairly brisk. The Worldometer daily new case 7-day average reached 69,000 yesterday and that’s triple the number from the end of May. In that same July 9 post, I projected the daily death rate would peak about 2 weeks after the daily new cases. Since it takes a few days for the deaths to be reported I’m projecting the decline in the reported deaths to begin in within 3 weeks. You're optimistic covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaThe forecasting contest is on. The government's models versus a back-of-the-envelope prediction based on Spread Rates.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 24, 2020 16:13:00 GMT
One tidbit of information, 50% of people in Stockholm, by far the most populous city, live by themselves.All they had to do was observe social distancing, voluntarily, and their risk was low. My mother's father was a hunter and fur trapper in Northern Canada as a young man. In the Winter he ran a dog team to manage his trap lines. With a grade 3 education he made his living with his hands and once told me so while holding them up. He raised my mother for a part of her childhood in a log cabin he built with his hands. I have a log from that dirt hovel in my home. Joe lived by himself. I see your point 😄 I'll rephrase, 50% Swedes in Stockholm inhabit a dwelling by themselves with no other permanent resident present within same dwelling. (Where permanent is defined as anyone spending more then two weeks consecutively within a 6 month period and/or while contributing funds to upkeep, bills, rent, mortgage or otherwise)
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 24, 2020 22:26:24 GMT
My mother's father was a hunter and fur trapper in Northern Canada as a young man. In the Winter he ran a dog team to manage his trap lines. With a grade 3 education he made his living with his hands and once told me so while holding them up. He raised my mother for a part of her childhood in a log cabin he built with his hands. I have a log from that dirt hovel in my home. Joe lived by himself. I see your point 😄 I'll rephrase, 50% Swedes in Stockholm inhabit a dwelling by themselves with no other permanent resident present within same dwelling. (Where permanent is defined as anyone spending more then two weeks consecutively within a 6 month period and/or while contributing funds to upkeep, bills, rent, mortgage or otherwise) And they never leave their abode for food, clothing, social activities etc.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 25, 2020 5:44:20 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 25, 2020 7:22:33 GMT
I see your point 😄 I'll rephrase, 50% Swedes in Stockholm inhabit a dwelling by themselves with no other permanent resident present within same dwelling. (Where permanent is defined as anyone spending more then two weeks consecutively within a 6 month period and/or while contributing funds to upkeep, bills, rent, mortgage or otherwise) And they never leave their abode for food, clothing, social activities etc. Quite, but how differently do they behave when doing so after awareness of pandemic. Its all about minimising risk.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 25, 2020 7:28:24 GMT
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