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Post by Andrew on Jun 11, 2013 23:17:03 GMT
So is the trend line shown since 2009 just the best fit of all of the available annual means? No, it is the best fit to ALL the individual observations Thanks but what i was getting at was that the trend line is not corrected by some method for the missing data. I was thinking initially if any supplied data is nearly always truncated at a known point, and is normally distributed then a correction could be applied somehow. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jun 12, 2013 14:23:39 GMT
No, it is the best fit to ALL the individual observations Thanks but what i was getting at was that the trend line is not corrected by some method for the missing data. I was thinking initially if any supplied data is nearly always truncated at a known point, and is normally distributed then a correction could be applied somehow. The trend line is not 'corrected' but shows the trend as observed. The way we correct is use the distributions, as in Figure 3 of www.leif.org/research/apjl2012-Liv-Penn-Svalg.pdf |
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Post by Andrew on Jun 13, 2013 19:24:15 GMT
Thanks but what i was getting at was that the trend line is not corrected by some method for the missing data. I was thinking initially if any supplied data is nearly always truncated at a known point, and is normally distributed then a correction could be applied somehow. The trend line is not 'corrected' but shows the trend as observed. The way we correct is use the distributions, as in Figure 3 of www.leif.org/research/apjl2012-Liv-Penn-Svalg.pdfThankyou for your answers. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Jul 14, 2013 5:50:05 GMT
Still looking good, even with the second degree fit. Amazingly weak cycle which was predicted by this method!
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Dec 13, 2013 14:51:43 GMT
The L&P data seems to indicate a possible "peak" has been passed in the L&P effect. It seems to indicate that the magnetic fields have begun to increase, and umbral intensity has started to decrease in recent months... (The intensity of sunspots appears to be slowly returning to normal, or at least not getting lower.) Is this true, and is this significant? The most current L & P data is continuing to suggest that the peak of the L & P effect has passed for now. Suspiciously the peak the of effect appears to have been closely associated with the cycle 24 solar max. If the data continues to trend lower, we will have to wait until cycle 25 to find out if the effect, whatever it is, waxes and wanes with a cycle. Only seven or eight years to wait. Film at eleven. 2020. It has been a year since my first post on this, and I believe that the L&P data continue to show that the L&P effect, has peaked and is beginning to weaken. Yes slowly. Furthermore, with the limited duration of the L&P data, we don't know what the curve looked like for the second half of cycle 23, this could have happened before and was just missed. The decline in sunspot activity also seems to have taken a breather. Nothing will be conclusive until we can observe L&P data throughout the waning cycle 24. Interesting times, I hope I live long enough to see how it all turns out! |
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AD6AA
Level 2 Rank
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Post by AD6AA on Feb 25, 2014 3:38:15 GMT
Has there been any more L&P data?
Mike
AD6AA
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Feb 25, 2014 17:48:03 GMT
Hello AD6AA Lief has a really cool research page here: www.leif.org/researchThe L & P data is the seventh column down. Column H. Column 6 has a really interesting graph of the polar fields. Column I. You can spend half a day (or more) on Leif's research page. He is all about hard data, and getting it right. |
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AD6AA
Level 2 Rank
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Post by AD6AA on Feb 25, 2014 20:19:40 GMT
Thanks www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.pngKnew Leif had a web site and visited it a couple of time, but usually looked for information here. I see the line flatting out as we get closer to the point where the sunspots are invisible. If you can not see the spots to measure, the visible spots that are measured will cause the line to flatten. I mentioned this might happen a few years back, but don't think the way I explained it was understood back then. Only the visible active regions are measured not the invisible active regions. This will make the line flatten out along the visible line until the spots disappear or if the sun spots come back the curve will have a flat top. Still not sure if I explained myself. Mike AD6AA |
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Post by justsomeguy on Feb 28, 2014 6:25:13 GMT
Thanks for reporting this Leif, quite exciting material! Thanks also to Livingston for providing his measurements. So how far are we away from confirming L&P (2005)? five years at the most In 2009 Leif stated we were less than five years from confirming L and P effect. It sure has been interesting, and Livingston, Penn and Leif have been right. When do we get the confirmation paper? |
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timb
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Post by timb on Mar 4, 2014 4:25:58 GMT
In 2009 Leif stated we were less than five years from confirming L and P effect. It sure has been interesting, and Livingston, Penn and Leif have been right. When do we get the confirmation paper? Does the new peak reset the clock? The sun doesn't appear quite ready to re-establish its magnetic field quite yet. Is it still a quadropole? |
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Post by justsomeguy on Mar 8, 2014 13:17:06 GMT
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timb
New Member
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Post by timb on Sept 28, 2014 2:48:57 GMT
is it still in a weak quadrapole? It will be interesting when the poles reform. I also have a question as to whether the magnetic ropes introduce a drag on the differential rotation much like high speed trains use magnetic braking. It would be quite interesting if the differential rate of rotation is affected by the lack of magnetic organization and the toroidal ropes that give rise to sunspots.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 6, 2014 20:26:46 GMT
Thanks www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.pngKnew Leif had a web site and visited it a couple of time, but usually looked for information here. I see the line flatting out as we get closer to the point where the sunspots are invisible. If you can not see the spots to measure, the visible spots that are measured will cause the line to flatten. I mentioned this might happen a few years back, but don't think the way I explained it was understood back then. Only the visible active regions are measured not the invisible active regions. This will make the line flatten out along the visible line until the spots disappear or if the sun spots come back the curve will have a flat top. Still not sure if I explained myself. Mike AD6AA I think the plots show the shape you describe quite well now Mike, I guess the interesting unknown was how close the plotted line would get to 1500 gauss. It does however seem to have reached its max/min.... |
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Post by scpg02 on Dec 17, 2014 15:41:54 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Dec 21, 2014 22:07:14 GMT
Ok....i find this interesting and could be significant, however when I search the net there is nothing. ...can anyone support this? Good post scpg02....thx |
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