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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 30, 2013 6:34:58 GMT
Thermostat: The relevant question is: "What physical mechanism is the climate science community missing?" sigurdur, I don't think that the scientifc community is overlooking any potential physical mechanisms. If there is a lack of understanding I suspect it is on the side of the novice onlookers. Tstat, What is the scientific evidence that the current position of the Jet Stream is a result of the “ice melt of 2012”. So far, all I've heard from media is conjecture. Please supply links to something a tad more factual & scientific. By the way, here in the UK even the BBC / Met Office state “ice melt of 2012” is only a theory; their primary suspicion is that its caused by the unusually warm water in the North Atlantic: They also state that the current UK weather patterns are not unprecedented and are very similar to those of the 1950's - so it appears the "science" is far from settled. See: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-20819603If you say the science is settled, you better let the Met Office & the BBC know - novice onlookers?
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 29, 2013 8:06:10 GMT
The "not helpful" Met Office:Last spring's forecast has been obtained by BBC News under Freedom of Information. The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: "The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months." A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: "Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful." Julia Slingo explains the difficulty of constructing long-distance forecasts, given the UK's position at the far edge of dominant world weather systems. She says "last year's calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic".(On reading the above, I laughed so hard a little jet of wee came out. Aside from giving me wet trousers, Julia has provided me with my now all time favourite excuse). Link: www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21967190
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 28, 2013 9:07:23 GMT
What physical mechanism are you suggesting? Can you be more specific? Or not? Are you suggesting that UK temperatures are a uniquely relevant/special indicator of global phenomena? Tstat, What I was indicating in my post was my surprise at the repeated claims that the current position of the Jet Stream is a result of the “ice melt of 2012”. I've not heard anyone in the media mention the possibility that solar output could be the driver of the Jet. The evidence: Sir William Herschel penned his observations in Philosophical Transactions in 1801, Herschel noted that high wheat prices (indicating a scarcity of wheat) occur when sunspots are few. A more up to date paper from the new scientist: Link: www.newscientist.com/article/dn6680Another paper linking cold European winters and solar activity: Link: www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-39.shtml So there is very strong evidence that solar output has a significant impact on Northern Hemisphere winters (I made no suggestion that this was a global phenomenon). What else but an errant jet stream could result in cold NH winters? There is however evidence that Japan’s winters have also been historically affected by periods of low solar activity. In the 17th century (during a period of low solar activity) the records show that the Kyoto cherry blossoms bloomed later than usual (the temps were 2 degrees lower than in the second half of the 20th century). Interestingly, the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan don’t dismiss the potential impact a solar minimum would have globally, their website for their Hinode satellite (formerly Solar-B, a Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Solar mission with United States and United Kingdom collaboration), contains the following quote: These research results show that the solar dynamo, which is a process generating magnetic fields within the Sun, is bringing about changes seen for the first time since the start of modern-style solar observation. It is believed that the Sun has previously experienced these circumstances during the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum, which are said to have been periods when the Earth's climate was colder. Attention will be paid to future changes.Link: hinode.nao.ac.jp/news/120419PressRelease/index_e.shtml
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 27, 2013 10:18:00 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 27, 2013 8:43:54 GMT
New paper claims/finds the Sun controlled climate change of Asian continent over past 12,000 years. • A complete Holocene sequence of loess and buried soils has been studied in Siberia • Climatic cycles of 1000 and 500 years are revealed using petromagnetic parameters • Such periods correspond to variations in solar insolation and sun spot activity • Climatic cyclicity in the continental interior contains also oceanic cycle of 1500 years Link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000775
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 26, 2013 11:44:56 GMT
We have seen studies linking Atlantic blocking and low solar in the UK and in the 80's my A Level Geog master taught us that low solar linked in with global H.P. anoms? High Pressure sures makes things cold over winter but once the Sun is up and regained some strength we see the opposite with high temps drying out the land helping maintain the pressure system. The rest of the weather gets forced around the high. Last years ramp up of ice losses will have impacts across the north. Will the continental highs that brought deep cold to many inner continents maintain this spring and have us face a 'flip, flop) of temps from cold to hot? Will the amplification of jet peaks/troughs increase (huzzah! a dryer summer for us!)? Whatever I think we should be open to more extreme weather across the northern hemisphere this summer and if the arctic ice melts out earlier those extremes will be hot! Agreed, an erratic jet stream could result in a wonderfully hot (but with drought) or a wet, cold & overcast summer. The extreme range of weather experienced at the start of the 14th Century appears to be remarkably similar to that which we are experiencing today - examples of cold, wet & heat: 1305 - A hot, dry summer (London/South).
1305/06 - Severe winter (London/South). A severe winter over much of western Europe. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb): taking these two last entries together suggests a high frequency of blocked / anticyclonic episodes.
1309/10 - London Bridge arches damaged by ice during a severe winter. Thames frozen. A possible frost-fair on the Thames in London; which implies a persistent length of sub-zero temperatures at some time this winter (inferred by the statement in some chronicles that 'sport' was held on the river). Usual stories about people walking across the Thames. According to contemporary reports " dancing took place around a fire built on the ice and a hare was coursed (chased) on the frozen waterway ".
1314/16 - Several famines occurred during these years (weather assumed to have been responsible, with all three years noted by various historians as 'very wet' ... it's a moot point though as to whether all three were really wet, or just the effects of one or two carrying over). Brazell says that the famine of 1316 was probably the last really severe one in England, and historians have estimated that over this period, roughly half-a-million people died of causes related to famine, which represented approximately 10% of the population. [ The wet year credited to 1315 may be the origin of the St. Swithin legend. ] The 'Black Death' (Bubonic plague) that ravaged the country 1348 onwards may have some linkage to these precursor conditions - though it is a long time afterwards. Certainly though, in the mid-1300's, mortality was high due to famine, disease etc. It is suggested that it was an increase in climatic variability, rather than the absolute temperature & rainfall regimes that caused the problems. There is some suggestion of an increase in extreme events (including wind-storms), however defined. Some evidence that as well as excessively damp conditions, temperatures were depressed.
1320 - Wet, cool summer and disastrous harvest. [from ... www.tree-ring.co.uk/Timeline.htm; haven't found any other sources for this.]
1321 - Hot, dry summer (London/South).Just a small sample; it's worth while taking a look at the source: booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1300_1399.htmWhat else but an errant Jet Stream could have caused these extremes of weather? Anyone know what the sun was doing in the 1300's?
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 26, 2013 9:40:54 GMT
The connection of the present winter event to the extreme sea ice melt of 2012 is quite interesting. What about the potential correlation of solar activity & UK temps? Virtually all of the UK's harshest winters have occurred during periods of low solar activity. The graphs below have high temp and high activity highlighted with green rings, but matching periods of low temp and low activity are clearly visible - the raw data is freely available, anyone got some good cross correlation software?
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 26, 2013 8:52:55 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 20, 2013 8:11:12 GMT
cuttydyer: There has been a storm of postings in the denial blogs concerning the Mail article on Sunday. The distortions of known facts amaze me. A simple statement, we have not warmed for 16 years, certainly does seem to send the deniers into a frenzy. Skeptical Science Syndrome on full display. Here's a typical example of a post, from a very good weather forum: Contain your rage, ladies and gentlemen, I couldn't make it past the first sentence of the latest pile of **** from the waste of paper that is the Daily Fail..."I couldn't make it past the 1st sentence" is quite an alarming statement; in other words I will refuse to acknowledge any material that doesn't support my stance on AGW...
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 19, 2013 12:36:43 GMT
It's now obvious that all the climate predictions made by the IPCC is seriously flawed. I think we have a little ice age in front of us considering the very weak solar activity and the weather development the last 10 years. The CO2 warming theory is scientifically dead, but still remains as a political project. Hi Climasol, If solar output is the primary driver of the Jet (I believe it to be), validation will be the Northern Hemisphere winter temps we might experience over the next decade. I suspect the Winters around the year 2018 will be extremely harsh.
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 19, 2013 12:09:30 GMT
Seems winter is extending itself in Britain. Still very cold; MET CET table: Looks like we will soon get a visit from the Jet Stream: So a break from the cold and get back to flooding: Then cold forecast to return: What a great start to 2013... P.S. If the month remains at 3.8C, it will finish as the coldest March since 1970, which was 3.7C.
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 19, 2013 9:00:14 GMT
This is a little off topic, but I can't help but draw parallels with a BBC TV film that was aired (UK) last night. The Challenger, a one-off film / drama based on the true story of Nobel Prize-winning physicist Dr Richard Feynman (played by William Hurt – brilliant in the role), reconstructed his investigations into how the disaster occurred. The title not only referenced the shuttle, but also Dr Feynman's pivotal role in challenging the establishment to expose the project failings – Feynman was not a man to allow politics to taint his beautiful science. Found an original clip of the televised hearing on Youtube which includes the moment (@1:56) Feynman dipped a sample of the O ring into a glass of ice water to show that contrary to the data provided by NASA, the rubber loses all its elasticity when cold: www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCLgRyKvfp0Politics has a nasty habit of corrupting everything it comes in contact with. Feynman’s appendix to the Rogers Commission report ends with the statement: NASA owes it to the citizens from whom it asks support to be frank, honest, and informative, so that these citizens can make the wisest decisions for the use of their limited resources. For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 16, 2013 11:37:51 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 16, 2013 6:30:39 GMT
The harshest winters always seem to coincide with a quiet sun:
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 12, 2013 10:27:15 GMT
Cutty: You have nailed it Ole Chap!!!!! The sun influences the Jet Streams!! I know that climate science wants to deny this fact, but the other sciences sure do recognize this. From what I have been able to read, the mechanism is not nailed down, but the correlation is so strong that everyone, except climate scientists, recognize that the mechanism will be found with more available observation. The whole climate is so very complicated it is quit wonderful! Can’t remember who, but a couple of contributors to this site drew parallels with weather events in the post peak Medieval Warm Period with those experienced by the UK over the last year (particularly those that occurred in the 14th Century). These comments got me Googling, and this site popped up: booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htmThe range of weather experienced in the 1300’s certainly does appear to be similar to the recent drought, flood and bitter cold events. Back in the 14th Century, what other than a meandering jet stream could cause such a range of extremes? Example: booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1300_1399.htm
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